2019 Osun Assembly Projection: How The Pendulum May Swing

By Solomon Odeniyi

Going by the outcome of the state gubernatorial election which the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won with a slim margin in Osun, the composition of the next House of Assembly and House of Representatives might be a mix of members from three major political parties, APC, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Action Democratic Party (ADP).

However, with the alignment with Senator Iyiola Omisore, the total dominance enjoyed by the ruling APC might give the ruling party highest members of the parliament, even with more than two third.

This is just as parties fielding candidates for the 26 House of Assembly seats have concluded the process of selecting their standard bearers as the 2019 General Elections draw closer.

Analysts have said the election would be among three parties, the PDP, APC and ADP and each with its threshold, with ADP likely to have a constituency to their credit.

For instance, in Iwo, with the ADP governorship candidate,  Moshood Adeoti’s factor coming to play where he got over 16, 000 votes in the local government, his party might take a lead.

Adeoti was believed to have built enduring structures that are loyal to his course in the area, a situation that might make it difficult for any other party to win.

However, regardless of Adeoti’s factor, the acceptability of candidate put forward for the election by any other parties, particularly the APC might spring surprise, as the contest would be among the people of Iwo constituency alone.

The remaining 25 slots would be between the PDP and APC.

In Ayedire , Olaoluwa, Egbedore , Ayedade , Ifedayo, Ila, Boluwaduro among other, the contests might not be as predictable as other districts, as the pendulum could swing towards any direction due to the slim margin between the two parties during the gubernatorial poll.

Meanwhile, the PDP has got Ede North, South at its beck and call, although the turn out votes in the area has been a bone of contention as there were allegations of over voting in favour of PDP.

This aside, the PDP remains the party to beat in the mentioned constituencies, but the defection of Adejare Bello who delivered his unit to the APC might spring surprises for the party.

Presently, members of the House of Assembly representing Ife Central and East belong to opposition and they are believed to be of Omisore, but now with Omisore’s factor, the APC should have a rollercoaster turn out of votes in the two constituencies as well as Ife South, North where it had a strong stead. Same with Ilesa East.

Ilesa West and Atakumosa West, Obokun and Oriade might be battle grounds for the two parties. The PDP won the councils. However, the Omisore factor might as well settle the score for APC as he polled less than 2,000 votes which if added would balance things up for the APC.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the ruling APC should win fair and square in Osogbo, Olorunda, Boripe and Odo-otin, judging by the votes recorded during the governorship poll, but the party might be up for a banana slip if it field unpopular candidates.