- Sodiq Yusuf
Nigeria has been projected to emerge the third most populous country in the world by the year 2100.
Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future.
The report by the United Nation projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023, would peak around 2086 to about 10.4 billion, start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100, (the medium-variant projection).
According to the UN, of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050, all of that change will come from less developed countries, and more than half will come from sub-Saharan Africa.
Half of the growth will come from just eight countries, five of which are in Africa. It is predicted that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050.
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The population of a country or area grows or declines through the interaction of three demographic drivers: fertility, mortality, and migration.
The list below shows the bulk of the world’s population growth is projected to take place in Africa.
Of the additional 1.9 billion people projected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be added in Africa, 0.7 billion in Asia and zero in the rest of the world.
Africa’s share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 25% in 2050 and 38% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 45% in 2100.
The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the exceptional proportion of young people already living today.
For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by about 2050.
Projected population in 2100:
1. India → 1,533 M
2. China → 771M
3. Nigeria → 546M
4. Pakistan → 487M
5. Congo → 431M
6. US → 394M
7. Ethiopia → 323M
8. Indonesia → 297M
9. Tanzania → 244M
10. Egypt → 205M
11. Brazil → 185M
12. Philippines → 180M
13. Bangladesh → 177M
14.Niger → 166M
15.Sudan → 142M
16.Angola → 133M
17.Uganda → 132M
18. Mexico → 116M
19. Kenya → 113M
20. Russia → 112M
21. Iraq → 111M
22. Afghanistan → 110M
23. Mozambique → 106M
24. Vietnam → 91M
25. Côte d’Ivoire → 88M
26. Cameroon → 87M
27. Mali → 87M
28. Madagaskar → 83M
29. Turkey → 82M
30. Iran → 79M
31. South Africa → 74M
32. Yemen → 74M
33. Japan → 74M
34. UK → 70M
35. Germany → 68M
36. France → 60M
37. Canada → 53M
38. Saudi Arabia → 50M
39. Argentina → 47M
40. Australia → 38M
41. Italy → 36M
42. Spain → 30M
43. South Korea → 24M
44. Netherlands → 16M
45. UAE → 14M
46. Sweden → 13M
47. Switzerland → 10M
48. Austria → 8M
49. Norway → 7M
50. Denmark → 7M
51. Finland → 5M
52. Slovenia → 1.6M
53. Latvia → 0.95M
54. Estonia → 0.83M
55. Iceland → 0.37M
