The recent data released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has brought into question the accuracy of President Bola Tinubu’s statements regarding Nigeria’s crude oil production.
During an address on August 4, 2024 on the event of the #EndBadGovernance, President Tinubu claimed that Nigeria’s oil output had risen to 1.6 million barrels per day, attributing this increase to the reforms his administration introduced in the oil sector in May 2024.
The President stated that the revival of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry was evident from the increased production and renewed investor interest, with two significant Foreign Direct Investment agreements already secured.
According to Tinubu, these developments underscored the success of his administration’s initiatives in reversing the decline in the sector.
Tinubu had said, “Our once-declining oil and gas industry is experiencing a resurgence on the back of the reforms I announced in May 2024 to address the gaps in the Petroleum Industry Act.
“Last month, we increased our oil production to 1.61million barrels per day, and our gas assets are receiving the attention they deserve. Investors are coming back, and we have already seen two Foreign Direct Investments signed of over half a billion dollars since then.”
However, OPEC’s data, which reflects production figures communicated directly by Nigeria, shows that the country’s crude oil output was actually 1.3 million barrels per day in July 2024—the same month referenced by President Tinubu.
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This figure is 300,000 barrels per day lower than what was claimed by the President in his speech.
The discrepancy raises questions about the source of the data used by President Tinubu. OPEC’s records are generally consistent with figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). For instance, in both May and June 2024, OPEC and NUPRC reported similar production levels of approximately 1.25 and 1.27 million barrels per day, respectively.
The gap between the figures reported by President Tinubu and the data from OPEC suggests that Nigeria’s oil production has not yet reached the levels claimed by the President. This discrepancy casts doubt on the narrative of a significant resurgence in the country’s oil sector as presented by the current administration.
