[PERSPECTIVE] Invisible Looting, Visible Suffering: The Real Cost Of Subsidy Removal
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- By Olufemi Aduwo
WHAT was sold to Nigerians as “reform” has revealed itself as something far more sinister: state-sanctioned extraction masquerading as economic policy. Consider the numbers. Between 2015 and 2023, Nigeria spent an estimated ₦12.6 trillion on fuel subsidies:
2015: ₦654 billion
2016: ₦240 billion
2017: ₦154 billion
2018: ₦1.19 trillion
2019: ₦508 billion
2020: ₦864 billion
2021: ₦1.43 trillion
2022: ₦4 trillion
2023 (Jan–Jun): ₦3.36 trillion
Yet in the single financial year ended 2024, according to NNPCL’s audited consolidated statements, the Federation accumulated a debt of ₦17.5 trillion to NNPCL for pipeline protection, energy security operations and under-recoveries on petroleum products a figure dwarfing almost a decade of historical subsidy spending. This includes ₦7.13 trillion in energy security costs and ₦8.67 trillion in under-recoveries, with additional amounts covering pipeline surveillance, repairs, anti-theft measures, and infrastructure safeguards.
One number alone obliterates every moral and economic justification ever offered for subsidy removal. The 2025 expenditure figures for these categories remain pending, but monthly reports through late 2025 highlight ongoing revenue, profits, and remittances without disclosing totals for these high-cost areas.Let us dispense with euphemisms.As its subsidy removal did not eradicate corruption it institutionalised it. It did not dismantle vested interests it entrenched them. It did not restore fiscal discipline, it diverted public wealth into fewer, more predatory hands.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s public debt has ballooned, rising from ₦12.6 trillion in 2015 to over ₦140 trillion today, as deficit financing accelerates unchecked. The government’s repeated promises that subsidy removal would stabilise finances have proven illusory. The visible subsidy was eliminated, only to be replaced by invisible, opaque spending executed with bureaucratic precision.A ruthless coalition clique, cartel or cabal now presides over a system deliberately structured to immiserate over 250 million citizens while protecting a privileged minority. Hardship has been codified as policy. Opacity has become governance.Let me be blunt this is among the most damaging administrations Nigeria has experienced. What we are witnessing is not macroeconomic adjustment; it is policy-driven predation.
Don’t be deceived by the international rating agencies, multilateral institutions, they were engaged.I have been a returnee to the World Bank & IMF Boards of Governors Meetings since 2012, served in the Civil Society Policy Forum (CSPF) of the World Bank, and assisted the World Bank Independent Integrity Group these institutions are diplomatic in words and actions. When these institutions applaud a nation, it is often a signal that citizens are in distress and governance has shifted to optics over substance.
Another four years of this approach would deepen debt distress, accelerate capital flight, erode investor confidence and further impoverish households. No economy can survive prolonged exposure to predatory governance.History will not recall this era as one of necessary adjustment. It will record it as a national tragedy engineered by professional looters and legitimised with technocratic language. Shame ,I mean profound shame on a system that has institutionalised corruption, weaponised policy and dignified theft as governance.
- Permanent Representative of CCDI to the ECOSOC/ United Nations NB: CCDI is non profit organisation with Consultative Status of United Nations.
The opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author. It does not represent the editorial position or opinion of OSUN DEFENDER.
