Asiwaju Tinubu: A Comet In Our Sky

By Olowogboyega Oyebade

Do you know that there are eight special traits of the people that are born in March?  Do you know that they are  highly intuitive, generous, devoted, multi- talented and are adaptive to any situation?  Do you know that Chief Awolowo was born on 6th March, 1909?    Do you know that on 14th   March, 1879, Albert Einstein was born? Do you know that Liz Claiborne, whose company in 1986 became the first one founded by a woman to be ranked on the Fortune 500 list, was born on 31 March, 1929? Hurray! Do you know that our own Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was born on 29th March, 1952 to make the list of the Greats?  You care for more?  Come along, please.    

    Do you know J.J. Rousseau? Are you aware that his thoughts expressed on political economy in 1758 threw him up as a philosopher?   Are you aware that brains such as  Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo, were recognised as  political economists because of providing practical solutions to intractable problems afflicting society ?  Do you know that Asiwaju Tinubu has done more incisively than some of them, put together? Have you read  Karl Marx’s  Political Economics  as  contained in his book Das Kapital? Do you know that Antonio Genovesi was the first tenured professor of Political Economy?   Do you know that Thomas Malthus, in 1805, became England’s first Professor of Political Economy, at the East India Company College, Haileybury, Hertfordshire? Do you know these great brains did not have enough practical political platforms to personally test their theories?  Do you know that Asiwaju comes up with theories and executes them practically with exactitude?  Do you know that it is no mean feat to act as a cast in hundreds of drama before the capacity audience of 203 million people, the signature audience of the largest concentration of black people in the world and still drawing the loudest ovation?  A Halley’s Comet is here in firmament! Just on the spot of Kilometre 67.  You know Halley’s comet?  Enjoy this time-out. The voice of President Buhariinterludes:

​“Asiwaju’s uncompromising posture in the face of injustice and refusal to follow the path of least resistance for personal gains stand him out today as a rare breed and one of the cornerstones of Nigeria’s democracy, especially with his track record of persistence, consistency and effective leaders

     Are you aware that since at least 240 BC astronomers were studying the solar system to find out how it works? Do you know that many of them were not convinced that comets orbited the Sun? Do you know that in 1687, Sir Isaac Newton published his book titled “Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica,” in which he outlined his laws of gravity and motion and attempted to calculate the movements of comets?  Do you know that it was Newton’s friend, editor and publisher, Edmond Halley, who, in his 1705 Synopsis of the Astronomy of Comets, used Newton’s new laws to calculate the gravitational effects of Jupiter and Saturn on cometary orbits and discovered a special comet later named after him? The comet has two features comet.  One is that it is visible to the naked eyes while in orbit.  Two is that it appears every 75–76 years and can only  appear twice in a human lifetime? Do you know that its last appearance in the inner parts of the Solar System was in 1986 and will next appear in mid-2061?  Do you know that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is that rare Halley’s comet in our political and economic solar system, crystal clear to the naked eyes?  

       Do you know that such a meteor does not appear in the firmament often, just once or twice in a generation, a period that has since been found to vary between 74–79 years?  

​Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,  began his trek of Nigeria on 29th March, 1952. He traversed into a long route of Accounting, Politics and Business, known to be ‘Jack’ of all these trades and master of all.  He had a stint at the National Assembly as a Senator and later Governor of Lagos State during which he gave a new definition to leadership, teamwork, vision and courage. ​His passion gave him traction and initiated him into the membership  of all associations.  He is a fully subscribed member of the  associations of the rich and the rich, the powerful and the powerless, the religious and the agnostics, the very old and the very young, the well-fed and the malnourished, the plutocrat and the prudent, the brainy and the mentally-retarded, the very foreign and the localized local, the piously godly and the unrepentant sadists, the theorists and the technicians, the drunk and the sober, the entertainers and the entertained, the cultural icons and the non-conformists, the legal minds and the educated commoners, all sitting together at the same mahogany table.   AsiwajuTinubu is a polyglot that understands the registered languages of all without appeal to the worst in any and without descending to demagoguery. .  

If not that he is a polyglot, how can urbane Lagosians noted for impatience,  rush after the tax-man to pay with joy and pageantry without appeal to violence? If not a polyglot that he is, how can members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers and Road Transport Employers Association be so organized to carry out a revolution in the transport sector?  If not the polyglot that he is, how come that he is the patron of all viable labour movements that he had to broker peace most of the time?  If not that he is a polyglot. how come that he is a fellow of students’ unionism?   If not a polyglot that he is, how can market women be so organized under him to the level that they have the capacity to install or depose any administration with their votes? If not a polyglot that he is, how come that he understands the body languages of alms-men coming unsolicited to eat from his table? If not a polyglot that he is, how come he understands the inaudible languages and slangs of the ‘area boys’ that they jointly sign a life-long treaty to drop violence and get engaged in productive ventures created by his administration? If not the polyglot that he is, how come that his avowed disciples sch as Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Mr Adegboyega Oyetola are setting good standard of governance in any State they occupy, creating signature revolution in education, health, agriculture, culture, tourism and social protection? Do we hear you say ‘more’?  

 If not a polyglot that he is, where would all these ‘AsiwajuBoys’, ‘Asiwaju Girls’, ‘Asiwaju Women in Politics‘ , ‘Oranmiyan Worldwide’ ” Youth Solidarity and more get decent patronage and opportunities to serve in positions?  If not the polyglot that he is, how can he blend so well with all the civil society groups and always at home with their causes?  If not a polyglot that he is, how can be one of the best advocates of free and prosperous press?  If not the polyglot that he is, how can he talk to the Professors in the Universities to come and be his servant in Government Ministries, a call to duty that paid off later?   If not the polyglot that he is, how could he have discovered  Aregbe, Osinbajo, , Fasola, Lai Mohammed and more in just an Executive Council of a State?   If not a polyglot that he is, how could he have related with two diverse versions of the OPC, multiple versions of the drivers’ and cyclists’ associations without losing respect of any?  If not a polyglot that he is, how can he attempt to ride on the back of a tiger to join principally to install a confirmed dictator as head of our country and still worked on him to be a civil democrat?

If not a poyglot that he is, how come that his revolution to modernise traditional institutions in the South West by installing credible persons is succeeding with precision? If not a polyglot that he is, how could he have succeeded in making Yoruba Language an official language in Lagos State?  If not the polyglot that he is, do you know that his social protection programme in Lagos became infectious to all the States in the South West and an uncontrollable epidemic now in Nigeria, certified internationally as compliant?  Do you know that by that act, Chapter Two of the 1999 Constitution which our courts have pronounced unjusticiable has been made justiceable by this uncommon polyglot passing through our sky? If not a polyglot that he is, how can an act of a person amend the Constitution of a country without appeal to a bullet or moving a motion at the national assembly?   If not a polyglot that he is, how could it have been easy to adopt an open primary as a smart card for recall to get what he wants or what the people want or both?  A polyglot that can speak a language that will transform a  localchamp to an international Fifa-rated CEO of a most-viable political estate?

If not a polyglot that he is, how can somebody’s outburst create an atmosphere of trepidation, even to the powerful with smart ballistics  controlling weapons of war?  If not a polyglot that he is, how can his silence create fears in the minds of his detractors? A polyglot whose apostles have created Development Agenda for Western Nigeria spreading from Warri to Porto-Novo and from Igbokoda to Iyara, changing the colonial boundaries separating brethrens? A polyglot whose apostles have built signature schools, massive road infrastructure, social protection, promoting good health and building the architecture of a united region? If not a polyglot that he is, how can God create such a giant having everything good to serve humanity, a ready hand to give and a kind heart to spread charity?  A Halley’s comet is here.  It does not come often.

​Do you know that AsiwajuTinubu is an internationalist..having worked for  Arthur Andersen, Deloitte, Haskins, & Sells, and GTE Services Corporation and Mobil Oil Nigeria?  Are you aware that his democratic credentials made him a member of the Peoples Front led by Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, a faction of the Social Democratic Party, a founding member of the pro-democracy National Democratic Coalition, a group which mobilized support for the restoration of democracy and recognition of the results of the 12th of June?  Do you know that he was  once in exile to promote ‘Radio Kudirat‘ in concert with ‘Kongi’ himself, Laureate Soyinka, a rebel radio station meant for cats with nine lives.  Do you know that he was one of the founding members of Alliance for Democracy, a post-military politica party ebbing after the progressive manifesto of Awo – The Great?  While in power, do you know that his loyalty to the Federal Government was tested as  he chose to speak to power on the creation of Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) to meet the needs of its large population, the controversy that led to the Federal government seizing funds meant for local councils in the state for the rest of Tinubu’stenure as Governor?  Where are the Ogunlewe and George of this world? A voice interludes: “Hitler and Mussollini had their days.”

​Do you know that as a democrat, following the victory of the People’s Democratic Party in the April 2007 elections, AsiwajuTinubu was active in negotiations to bring together the fragmented opposition parties into a “mega-party” capable of challenging the PDP in 2011?  Are you aware that In July 2009, he called for implementation of electoral reforms spelled out in the Uwais Report to ensure that the 2011 elections would be as free and fair as the elections of 1993 had been?  Do you know that his sense of vision and revision saw  him to adopt at first, a forensic investigator, Ribadu,  later a former Vice President of the ruling party,  Atiku and later a born-again military dictator as presidential candidates all to promote democracy and good governance in our country with the least consideration for his person?  Can you now see that the lion is truly in Bourdillon and does not sleep nor slumber? The husky voice of Asiwaju at the Colloquium held in his honour at Kilometre 67 interludes;  

1. WORK FOR THE PEOPLE, That the people may work for themselves

2. I want to thank President Buhari for sharing this special day with me. The pressure of affairs facing the leader of a nation is such that you could have easily found reasons why you could not participate.  Instead you chose to be here and to even give me the compound honor of accepting to be the Chairman of this occasion. Mr. President, you have gone far these past few years in laying a good foundation for the economic recovery of the country. We shall go farther still so that Nigeria truly reaches the next level with you leading the way.  Here I must also thank our dear First Lady Aisha Buhari for her zeal, support and commitment to the betterment of this nation. You are a true role model for women in Africa.

           I commend the Vice President, my dear friend, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, and his team for organizing another excellent Colloquium. VP Osinbajo and his team have done a fine job bringing us together again this day. You have enhanced our democratic and economic discourse at a moment when such public discussion is greatly needed. You see, Next Level is not just a trendy campaign phrase to be quickly discarded once victory has been achieved. It has a much deeper and more profound meaning, perhaps even more than its authors contemplated. This is because we are a nation still in the process of defining itself politically and economically.

          In this process, it is tempting and easy to borrow indiscriminately from those nations that seem to have mastered the art of democratic governance and to have achieved economic prosperity.  However, to achieve durable progress, we can’t afford to work hard but in mindless devotion to the ways of other nations.  This truth is particularly acute when these very nations now face fundamental political and economic questions that cast doubt on the social utility and viability of the economic model under which they have travelled  for the past 50 years.    

          . Forecasters are predicting a global recession within the next 12-18 months. We must recognize these harsh economic tidings as advance warnings to the wise. Hence we must think deeper and work harder for our people in Nigeria. Mr. President, you have warned several times that the storm that approaches is not inevitable. It is born of a human folly and reckless greed. This means that it can be rectified by human wisdom and prudential action. The Next Level must be seen as part of this global and historic dynamic. Our pursuit of the Next Level cannot be achieved by blindly following the economic path of other nations. That would be tantamount to racing to live in a building just as its long-term occupants were frantically rushing out, screaming that the edifice was mean and crumbling.  If we are smart, we dare not enter.

      To pull the nation from poverty, government must play a decisive role. It must at times direct and even develop markets and opportunities. This is nothing novel. The single most important sector for the government’s focus is infrastructure. The most important of our infrastructural demands is power. This has been the greatest discovery of humanity in the last thousand years.

        POWER:

I believe the second Buhari administration will work to increase electricity generation, transmission and distribution by more than 50 percent within the next 4 years.

        INFRASTRUCTURE:

Government should continue to aggressively implement its national infrastructure plan.

22. We must applaud President Buhari for the historic innovations made in the agricultural sector. We must further encourage him to do even more. Government funded social security for the aged and government backed affordable housing and mortgage facilities are things we must continue to explore in an aggressive manner. Let it be that all may live in social contentment and tranquility with his neighbor as well as with himself. This is what we mean by the Next Level. Thank you for this wonderful birthday present you have given me. I have been enriched and energized by the intellectual exchange. I hope that you have too. Now, let’s move on to the Next Level.

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

​Do you know that Asiwaju still seized the occasion to speak to power?  Do you know that he has called on Professor Osinbajo and his team not to increase VAT contrary to ZainabAhmed, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance who disclosed the government’s plan to increase VAT last Wednesday, when she spoke at the public hearing on the 2019 budget organised by the Senate and House of Representatives Committees on Appropriation?  According to Asiwaju, such an upward review has the tendency to reduce the people’s purchasing power?  Do you know that he suggested alternative focus to  increasing the number of people in the tax net?  Do you know that he was right?  

​A value-added tax (VAT) is a tax that is assessed incrementally in relation to the value of a product or service.   Germany and France were the first countries to implement VAT, during World War I.  The modern  VAT was first implemented by France in 1954 in Côte d’Ivoire as a colony.   Recognizing the experiment as successful, France introduced it in 1958.  VAT raises about a fifth of total tax revenues both worldwide and among the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).  As of 2018, 166 of the 193 countries with full UN membership employ a VAT, including all OECD members except the United States, which uses a sales tax system instead.  Are you aware that the amount of VAT is decided by the country as percentage of the end-market price? ​Do you know that VAT as viable as it is, has its own limitations? Are you aware that a VAT, like most taxes, distorts what would have happened without it?  

           Do you know that as the prices of  goods rise, the quantity of goods traded decreases?  Do you know that this condition makes some people to be worse off by more than the government is made better off by tax income, thus increasing the trajectory of vulnerability?  Do you know that more is lost due to supply and demand shifts than is gained in tax?  Do you know that this situation is commonly referred to as a deadweight loss?  Are you aware if the VAT is increased now in the country, the income that will be lost by the economy will be greater than the government’s income and there will be a soar in the level of vulnerability?  Do you know that the supply and demand economic model suggests that any tax raises the cost of transaction for someone, whether it is the seller or purchaser?  Do you know that in this process of raising the cost, either the demand curve shifts leftward, or the supply curve shifts upward?  Do you know that the two are functionally equivalent and consequently, the quantity of a good purchased decreases, and the price for which it is sold increases?  Yes! The purchasing power of majority of the people is low and a raise of VAT may increase vulnerability.  

           Do you know that AsiwajuTinubu raised issues on the power  sector reforms, too? Are you aware of Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 (EPSR), a template  for  Vision 20:2020 Economic Plan and launched in 2009?  Do you know that the Nigerian power sector reform was a doctrine of necessity occasioned  by the chronically poor performance of the sector and has the Road Map for Power Sector Reform 2010?  The goals of the reforms include: (1) defining a new national power policy that positions the private sector as driver of the sector on funding, innovation, and leadership; (2) designing an enabling regulatory, policy, and commercial framework for engagements of all stakeholders in the sector; and (3) commercialization of the sector.

The tasks of the  Roadmap for Power Sector Reform include: establishment and strengthening the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC); establishment of the Nigerian Electricity Liability Management Company (NELMCO; strengthening National Power Training Institute of Nigeria); strengthening Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN); and sale of Nigeria’s generating companies and distribution companies to the private sector. Do you know that the  reformwas planned in three phases? Are you aware that one of the objectives of the reforms is to have  a cost-reflective electricity tariff? Yes!  Do you know that one of the goals was to generate, transmit and distribute 35,000MW of electricity by  year 2020 as against 3,500MW in 2008?  Do you know that as at May, 2018, our power generation capacity was only 7,500MW for 203 million people? Do you know that in 2016, South Africa generated 40,000MW for its 57 million people?  Do you know that Brazil generated 100,000MW for its 207 million people and the United States generated 700,000MW for its 320 million people? Do you know that the plan was to achieve 16,000MWby 2013?  Do you know that as at the close of 2018, our country can only distribute grid power output of 4,500MW?  

Are you aware that as we started our power sector reform in 2005, so also Vietnam, a country of 90 million people started the same journey in year 2005? What are the results? Do you know that Vietnam’s installed generation capacity was able to grow from 11,578MW in 2005 to 24,500MW in 2016 with transmission and distribution losses reducing by an annual average of 0.6% in the same period?  Do you know that the sector has witnessed notable developments? Do you know that apart from the $16 billion invested by the regime of Obasanjo, multilateral organizations equally raised $1.57bn to expand Nigeria’s power grid to 20,000MW by 2023?  Do you know that the funds were raised to implement the TCN’s Trans-missionRehabilitation and Expansion Programme (TREP)?  What are the results on ground?

The power industry is still in a deplorable state.  Large, medium and small scale industries suffer adverse effects. Do you know that in 2012, President Goodluck Jonathan declared that the Federal Government owed N185 billion in judgment debts as a result of the litigations which arose from top government officials’ decisions that were not thoroughly evaluated on power sector reforms?  Do you know that Nigeria has against it  twoarbitration awards totalling $8.9 billion (about N2.7 trillion) as the judgment obligations emanating from contractual actions of the Olusegun Obasanjo, UmaruYar’Adua and GoodluckJonathan administrations?  Where are we having it right?  How are we having it wrong?  Was there sufficient due diligence in the execution of the reforms?  Can we wait and waste the second term of President Buhari not to fix this all important sector? These are the posers of  AsiwajuTinubu.  

​Do you know that all of us must ask some salient questions? What are the problems of the core investors that have not made them to deliver on their contracts? What can arbitration and /or court adjudication do in this matter and swiftly do?  If the sale of the distribution power assets was predicated on cost-reflective tariff which would encourage the core investors to rehabilitate and improve the performance of the DisCos, then what can we do about the tarrif?  What happens to the March 2015 removal of  the collection losses component in the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) approved by the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC)?  What was the perception of the operators of the industry about the removal? Do they see it as political interference in a business corridor?  Are the companies aware of the Political Economy of their contracts?  What really necessitated the six tariff review suspensions since November 2013 when the power assets were handed over to the investors? Do we not need a common landing on this matter to set us on the path of progress?  Section 28 of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act cuts in:

“If the minister determines, following consultation with the President that the directive given under Section 27 will  result in decreasing electricity prices to such an extent that a trading licensee or distribution licensee would have inadequate revenue to enable payment  of its committed expenditures or is unable to earn permitted rates of return on its assets, despite its efficient management, the minister may issue further directives  to the commission (NERC) on the collection of competition transition charges from consumers and eligible customers, the distribution of the funds collected to the trading licensee described in Section 25(a) and to the distribution licensees, and the duration of the competition transition charge.”

​Why are the operators of the industry grumbling despite the N213 billion Central Bank of Nigeria’s Nigerian Electricity Market Stabilisation Fund (NEMSF) made available to them since 2015?  Has providing electricity for the people become a rocket science lurked up in voodooism?  Can massive inflow of funds from overseas to the power sector come in the face of the unresolved risks of the sector, particularly the short fall in the revenue value chain?  Why cant we sit down and talk to allow us to enjoy the first invention, light?  A voice says: “Let there be light.”?

​As the operators failed to deliver 13,000 megawatts (MW) by 2015 as the enabling Act envisages, can we still expect  40,000 MW by 2020, just nine months away,  to transform the economy of Nigeria?  Can we afford to miss this opportunity again under an integrity-denominated administration of President Buhari?  If 2020 is unrealizable, can we  diversifyenergy sources towards cleaner energy such as solar, geothermal, and wind? Do you now see why  why Asiwaju had to roar exactly at Kilometre 67?  Do you know that the energy challenges facing the country has serious effects on business, employment, poverty, and vulnerability?  Do you know that power outage is the norm rather than an exception?  

Are you aware that Nigeria is one of the countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the world at around 100 kilowatt-hour (kWh) per annum?  Do you know that our installed capacity remains lower than 7,5000 MW, out of which only 4,000 MW is operable and less than 2,000 MW available to generate energy?  Do you know that South Africa has almost 5,000 kWh per capita for its 57 million people?   Do you know the areas we are having challenges? Do you know that we have to go back to the table on the issue of a cost-reflective tariff (Multi-Year Tariff Order or MYTO) that would make the sector attractive to both local and foreign investors?  How do we harness the emergence of several independent power plants with combined capacity to generate additional 2,500 MW of electricity to the national grid?  How do we make the  regulatoryinstitutions do their work in such a way to move the country forward?  How do we put in more efforts to improve the gas-to-power infrastructure which is the greatest binding constraint on electricity supply, resulting from pipeline vandalism and gas pricing policy?  How do we avoid changing policies and market rules to guide the emerging privatized power sector at different stages of the reform? How do we overhaul the poor Transmission Network?  

How do we attract viable investors? How do we strengthen the metering system that would discourage power theft and improve the collection of  rate?  How do we curb excessive estimated bills that do not reflect power availability and consumption and have also discouraged payments by consumers?  How do we harmonise the policy thrusts of the reforms, the regularity of gas supply and the political economy of gas supply in Nigeria? Do you know that these and many more are the questions common people throw at the people’s general at the Bourdillion Street, The Jagaban of Borgu, the only Asiwaju of the generation?  Safe journey as you move from Kilometre 67.  The words of the leader you follow, Chief Obafem iAwolowo resonate again:

“Naturally sir,  in the course of my long, turbulent and active political life, I have attractedto myself a sizeable crop of detractors and political adversaries.  Similarly, I have in the course of this long career seen both triumphs and set-backs, and I have met them with equal mind.  Peter, not Peter the Apostle, but Peter, the hero of Hugh Walpole’s novel entitled ‘Fortitude’ said: “It isn’t life that matters, but the courage you bring to it.” After life had done terrible things to Peter, he heard a voice that said to him, among other things, “ Blessed be all sorrow, hardships and endurance that demand courage. Blessed be these things, for of these things cometh the making of a man.”

On behalf of the Governor of the State of Osun, Mr AdegboyegaOyetola and the entire workforce of the State, congratulations, Leader!A