Crisis in Venezuela as opposition calls himself ‘acting president’

The political crisis in Venezuela has intensified since Juan Guaido proclaimed himself acting president, but what happens next depends on the United States and the Venezuelan military.

In a country that has economically collapsed, with inflation forecast to hit a breathtaking 10 million percent this year, National Assembly chief Guaido said Wednesday he would “formally assume national executive powers” to end the “usurpation” of power by Nicolas Maduro.

Maduro has accused Washington of being behind an attempted coup and has cut diplomatic ties.

Here are four ways the situation could now unfold:

– A transition –

This is the solution Guaido favors: the formation of a “government of transition” and then the organization of elections.

Guaido urged the military, Maduro’s most powerful backers, to sever ties with the “dictator” in exchange for an amnesty.

But the military, for now, remains loyal to the head of state who has been in power since 2013.

If the army maintains its loyalty, the prospects for change will depend on the opposition’s ability to unite and stay united, to moderate its expectations and to accept a “longer-term transition,” said Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue, in Washington.

Things would move far more quickly if the military switched sides, but that would probably require amnesties for them and for some top Venezuelan officials, many of them accused by Washington of corruption, violations of human rights or drug trafficking.

Another factor that could accelerate the transition: if Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil (the US buys one-third of its total exports, some 510,000 barrels a day last year), this would deliver a fatal blow to the economy and fracture Maduro’s base of supporters, according to the Capital Economics consultancy.