INSIGHT: 8 Days To Go! Assessing The Mood Of The Electorate

 

• Assessing The Mood Of The Electorate

Yusuf Oketola 

Kazeem Badmus

As the people of Osun geare up for July 16 governorship election to elect the person that will paddle the canoe of the state for another four years, contestants and ‘pretenders’ have been campaigning, canvassing and manipulating the electorate to either convince or confuse them.

Fifteen political parties and candidates are participating in the race to the Bola Ige House. However, the election is mainly between two dominant political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), according to political analysts. “Other contestants in the election are mere participants who will not have significant votes”, said the analysts.

2018 OSUN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION RESULTS

APC = 254,345

PDP = 254,698

Total registered voters= 1,955,657

Total votes cast= 731,882

Total valid votes= 721,621

Rejected votes= 37,874

Governor Adegboyega Oyetola is representing APC while Senator Ademola Adeleke is the flagbearer of the PDP in the election. This is a repeat of the 2018 gubernatorial election where Oyetola managed to win with just 482 votes. Oyetola defeated Adeleke at the re-run election that took place in seven polling units across four local government areas after the first ballot. Adeleke had in the first ballot won with 353 votes after polling 254,698 against Oyetola’s 254,345. 

Unlike in 2018, there are slight political factors to be considered in projecting who wins the July 16 election. The candidature of Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi of Accord Party (AP), Rt. Hon. Lasun Yusuf of Labour Party (LP)and Arch. Goke Omigbodun of Social Democratic Party (SDP), presented ununited third force as alternative to the dominant PDP and APC.  Besides, OSUN DEFENDER noted that the trio of AP, LP and SDP does not have ‘state-wide political structure’, financial capacity, popularity and public acceptability needed for the election. It was observed that only PDP and APC are leading in political campaigns in every nook and cranny of the state.

2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS IN OSUN

APC = 347, 634

PDP = 337,377

Total registered voters= 1,674,729

Total votes cast= 731,882

Total valid votes= 714,682

Rejected votes= 17,200

Cancelled votes= 12,082 (reason: over voting)

Osun Central Senatorial District

For Oyetola, the APC might have a smooth electoral sail across the state because of the existing structure which comprise party executives, leaders, government functionaries, supporters and sympathisers. Specifically, the Governor is expected to have above average electoral performance in Osun Central Senatorial District because he hails from Iragbiji, Boripe Local Government. Also, Osogbo which has Osogbo and Olorunda local governments has the highest votes in the state and has always been voting massively for progressive. However, PDP will also have a good electoral show in Osogbo in the coming election because of division in the APC, recent outburst of Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Olanipekun Oyetunji and what people described as ‘foot-dragging’ infrastructural development in the State Capital. The winning margin might not be that significant for APC in Osogbo. The Governor is expected to win his own local government with wide margin higher than that of the 2018. Political analysts have submitted that electorates in Orolu and Irepodun local governments of Osun central would vote massively for the LP candidate, Yussuff. The former deputy speaker of the House of Reps hails from Ilobu, Irepodun local government. According to observation, PDP is likely to win Ifelodun, Odo-Otin and Boluwaduro local governments of Osun Central. APC appears to be an orphanage in Ifelodun because of the demise of late Akinrun of Ikirun, Oba Abdurauf Olawale Adedeji and Chief Gbadamosi Owoseni. Political functionaries who are claiming to be leaders in the local government are still struggling to coordinate their immediate followers. Also, last House of Reps and House of Assembly primary elections have further embittered members of the APC in the local government. Odo-Otin local government might go with PDP because of the perceived cheating on the House of Reps ticket for Ifelodun/Boripe/Odo-Otin Federal Constituency. Also, members of the party in Oyan are aggrieved because the APC House of Assembly ticket has been taken away from the town that has always been voting for progressives. Boluwaduro is known to be PDP local government. APC is likely to win Ila and Ifedayo local governments.       

Osun West Senatorial District

The PDP is predicted to win majority of the local government in Osun West Senatorial District where Adeleke of PDP and Ogunbiyi of AP hail from. Adeleke of PDP has his electoral strength in Ede, an ancient town with two local governments, where he got his bulk vote in 2018. Adeleke got 16,693 votes as against Oyetola’s 4512 votes in Ede South while in Ede North, the PDP candidate won with 18,745 to defeat Oyetola who polled 7025. Ede North and Ede South Local Government will be delivered for Adeleke with margin higher than that of 2018, according to political analysts. 

Another local government which will decide the winner of the Zone is Iwo, where a former Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti and the factional chairman of the party, Hon. Rasaq Salinsile hail from. Analysts believed that the two party chieftains who have not been seen anywhere near the campaign tour of Oyetola will have a say in the election result of the local government. Adeoti is a grassroot politician who is loved by his people. This is evident in the result of the 2018 election where he contested under ADP and got 16,425 votes in Iwo.

Speaking with OSUN DEFENDER in Iwo yesterday, a member of the APC in the town who do not want his name in print, said the silence of the two chieftains is confusing their followers as they were yet to decide who to vote for. 

According to the APC member, followers of the two APC bigwigs are angry with Oyetola but still remain in the party, adding that the followers may vote for whoever they wish if the party chieftains do not give them direction on the election. 

He disclosed that the APC is also having an issue with a religious group which has influence on the voting pattern of the town.

He said: “APC may win the election in Iwo but the margin will not be much. Alhaji Moshood Adeoti and Hon. Rasaq Salinsile are there and right now, they have not said anything about where they are going in the election. They kept their followers in the dark and if on the long run they fail to give directions, the followers will likely vote for whoever they want. Your guess is as good as mine. 

“Iwoland traditionally do follow a progressive party and indigenes of the town follow their leaders. Last time when Alhaji Moshood Adeoti was contesting in ADP, he got bulk of his votes from the town while APC came second. PDP came third. But now, PDP may win in Iwo considering the fact that people like Senator Oriolowo is being denied the second term ticket to the Senate. There a lot of people from Iwo land who will not support APC. The Salinsile and Adeoti factor needs to be considered too. 

“There is also a particular religious organization here in Iwo that is not happy with Oyetola. These organization influences a lot of people when it comes to election in the area. APC has a lot to do if they want to win convincingly in the area”. 

Irewole is the country home of the incumbent deputy governor, Gboyega Alabi and the Commissioner for Finance, Bola Oyebamiji. The two political functionaries have been making efforts to deliver the local government for APC. The local government was won by PDP in 2018. However, APC might also lose the local government again in the coming election because of the political strength of PDP’s senatorial candidate, Chief Lere Oyewunmi, a grassroot politician. Oyewumi, an indigene of Ikire is a former chairman of the local government.  PDP might likely win Egbedore, Isokan and Ayedaade local governments. 

Osun East Senatorial District

Osun East has no governorship candidate. But votes from the senatorial district are mainly for Oyetola and Adeleke because of party structures and political bigwigs in the area. One of the cities where PDP has strong presence is Ile-Ife, the hometown of the National Secretary of the APC, Senator Iyiola Omisore. The 2018 governorship candidate of the SDP joined APC in in February 2021. The PDP is also strong in Ijesaland with personalities like Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Hon. Wole Oke, Sanya Ominrin and Mr Ibukun Fadipe. In 2018, electorate in Ile-Ife voted massively for Omisore. He won in Ife Central and Ife east local governments, while APC won Ife South and Ife North local government. 

However, Omisore may not be able to deliver the same vote he got as a governorship candidate for Oyetola in the July 16 election, because the deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Kola Adewusi, is from the town. Community vote may be in favour of PDP in Ife Central and Ife East Local Government, while APC might win Ife South and Ife North local government. 

In Ijesaland, the PDP is likely to win Oriada, Obokun, Atakumosa East and Atakumosa West local government. APC is expected to win Ilesa West local government with a wide margin while Ilesa East was still not sure for either of the two parties as at the time of filing this report. 

Speaking with OSUN DEFENDER in Ile-Ife yesterday, a political analyst, comrade Olubukola Faforijin, said the candidates of APC and PDP will battle for votes in the East Senatorial District, adding that the margin of victory may not be too much. 

According to Faforijin, Adeleke is likely to win in all Ijesaland, excluding Ilesa West were the influence of the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Hon. Timothy Owoeye and the member representing Ijesa South Federal Constituency, Hon. Lawrence Ayeni will give APC victory. 

He further disclosed that the last State and National Assemblies primaries of the APC has caused a lot damage for the party in Osun East, adding that the opposition party has taken full advantage of the situation. 

He said: “As at today, PDP is likely to win majority of Ijesaland. The only exception may be Ilesa West local government and that is due to the influence of the political bigwigs in the area. 

“Hon. Wole Oke with his people are fully on ground in Obokun and Oriade local governments and most APC members in the area are angry with how the last primaries for the State and National Assemblies went. There are lots of members who have decamped to PDP in Ijesaland”.

In his analysis, a political science student of Obafemi Awolowo University, Moshood Olabisi, said Ife will be a battle ground for both APC and PDP, noting that either of the party will win with minimal margin.

He said: “The National secretary of the APC, Sen. Iyiola Omisore is fully on ground to ensure victory for his party. However, the performance of the Senator representing Osun East, Sen. Francis Fadahunsi coupled with the fact that the deputy governorship candidate of PDP is coming from that side will make it a real one”. 

He however predicted that “violence and vote buying will be on the high side in the area”.