{MAGAZINE} Osun 2018: 176 Days To Go! How Governorship Election May Shape Up

 

Below, OSUN DEFENDER’s Data Analyst, Damilola Ojenike looks at the state of play and configuration of voting data in recent elections in order to work out the permutations as we approach the political parties’ primaries slated for July.

The accompanying chart shows the 2014 governorship election results by senatorial districts.

Judging from this, it shows that the APC leads comfortably in two out of the three senatorial districts with a good margin. The two districts are the Osun West and Osun Central. The factors responsible for this, according to findings, include the popularity of the party among the teeming populace in the stated districts, their affinity for progressive tenets since the birth of politicking in the South-West region and the popularity of the candidate in the election.

It is also pertinent to mention the religious bias of the electorates, prior to the 2007 governorship election, the then Governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and his deputy were both Christians and the clamour for a Muslim ticket was a dominant request before the poll. Another variable which the electorates did not bother about is the senatorial district where the candidate in the election originated from.

The 2014 election was also determined by the antecedents of the incumbent as well as the expectations of the electorates if the same party is given the chance to continue to steer the ship of leadership in the state. Performance in the first term is a yardstick that compelled the electorates to stick out their necks for continuity even in the face of intimidation from the then PDP-led Federal Government.

The third senatorial district is almost equally shared with the APC winning by a slim majority. It won the base of the APC candidate, while the PDP candidate also won in his homestead.  The marginal difference between the two leading parties is less than 1%, considering that the APC won in 6 out of the 10 local governments in the district. This projection goes well for a definitive competition than the other senatorial districts.

In conclusion, the past is gone, the present is here and the future is just what we can predict with our present work. The past is not a sure determinant for the future but gives an added ground and points in a direction. The APC won the last election and won it well by winning in all the senatorial elections. How else can you win well. 3/3 – excellent. But like I would say, Statistics are like mini-skirts, they do not reveal everything, instead are used for projections and predictions for the future after giving us a hint into what is likely to happen. Moreover the variables are not the same and the quality of candidates that both parties would present and how acceptable such candidates would be for the electorates.

Besides, there is a likely to be a change in the attitude of the electorates towards the parties, as well as their candidates.