Niger: Strategic Engagement, Diplomacy, War, By Oluwaseun Abosede

Democracy is considered the best form of government; make no mistake about it. Any form of government in which people have the right to choose their rulers is considered better than dictatorship. Therefore, the coup in Niger, where a democratically elected President and his family have been held hostage until now, is atrocious, condemnable, and should not be allowed to stand by any means. A successful military coup in Niger constitutes a weighty setback for democracy in Nigeria, the region, and Africa as a whole.

However, it is important to shed light on why the military struck in Niger. Primarily, the Nigerien military has not fully embraced democracy, as there have been perennial threats of coup attempts in that country. An attempted coup took place as recently as 2021, just a few days before ousted President Bazoum’s inauguration. The attempted coup failed because the Presidential guards successfully fought it off. Secondly, the coup plotters blamed the lack of economic growth, declining economic prospects, rising insecurity, and the inability of the democratically elected leaders to curb insurgencies of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, including Boko Haram, as they continued to flourish. The country has recorded thousands of deaths, with many others displaced due to these conflicts.

Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium, the most widely used fuel for nuclear energy, adding to its strategic importance to France who kept milking the Republic with little or no significant payback. This prompted the new ‘Niger Regime’ to harvest the suffering of the people who can no longer persevere, bond them together, and struck. To the citizens, it does not matter if you wear khaki or Agbada, acceptance is acceptance, if people are broken, suppressed, and become bonded by yokes of wants with no sign of ease at hand, they might withdraw their support for democracy.

Expectedly, the people embraced the temporary breath of fresh air. Inversely, it is a pyrrhic victory; the kakitocracy will eventually override the democratic supposed tenet.

The world responded; Africa responded; ECOWAS responded. At the center of these responses, which have reached the boiling point, is Nigeria. Nigeria shares a long border with Niger. Among the 16 West African countries that form ECOWAS, three are already under military rule within four years from seven attempts. Despite Africa’s mere threats of sanctions without practical action to back them up, generals in nearby republics naturally felt that military takeovers should be replicated in their own domains. The idea of might being right holds, and situations in African countries are generally no different from what’s happening in Niger.

The addition of Niger to the growing list of nations under no constitutional rule is uncomfortable and definitely cannot be allowed to stand, even if it means taking the war to their doorstep.

Nonetheless, as salient as the restoration of democracy in Niger is, ensuring sanity and stability in the region and preventing spillover to Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu needs to be reminded primarily that his responsibility is to the peace and security of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. If war comes, aside from the heavy financial burden it will bring upon us, our border communities will witness an influx of refugees accompanied by insecurity, disrupting normal lives and leading to a general state of anomie. This is almost unacceptable, as our communities in the North consider Niger their neighbors amidst several traditional and cultural ties that bring the difference between a Nigerian and a Nigerien close. Moreover, Mali and Burkina Faso walked their talk by deploying tanks and Super Tucano fighter jets to support and protect Niger’s sovereignty against ECOWAS’s external invasion.

With all these intricacies, the Junta has defiantly refused to yield to entreaties and diplomatic pressure initially. They have made peaceful negotiation impossible by turning down political contacts and negotiations from Nigeria, ECOWAS, the AU, France, and the United States. When peaceful negotiation is made impossible, the world cannot allow the trend of military takeovers to continue. This stance makes the resolution of war with their noisy neighbors inevitable.

Cautiously realizing that “It is easier to start a war than to end it,” and with the heat of war mobilized by ECOWAS, the Nigerien coupists, led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, announced on Saturday, August 19th, that “their doors were open to exploring diplomacy and peace to resolve the matter,” and promised to restore democracy within the next three years. Of course, this wasn’t good enough for ECOWAS; however, we should pray that this action will yield positive results and prevent ECOWAS from deploying military boots onto that soil. As inevitable as it seems, war will exacerbate the situation in the already poverty-stricken West African nation – the aftereffects of which the most populous black country will bear the brunt, to say the least.

 

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not represent the opinions or views of Osun Defender