Osun 2018: 22 Days To Go! Shifting Alliances, Fluid Permutations

By Kehinde Ayantunji

As political parties warm up for the governorship election next month, there is growing concern among political observers that there might be a run-off election if no party meet the requirement to be pronounced winner.

The electoral act 2010 as amended provides that before any candidate can be pronounced winner of the election, such candidate must garner 25 per cent of votes cast in two-third of the local governments in the state and also majority votes of the total votes cast.

Finding have however shown that members of some major political parties are envisaging that with 48 candidates going into the election, the highest in the history of Osun, it might be difficult to have just one-round poll that will determiner the winner.

However, OSUN DEFENDER investigation gathered that the possibility of an alliance among the dominant political parties may no longer be possible before the election on September 22, as all the parties are bragging of the needed support to win the election.

Prior to commencement of political campaigns, talks of political alliance and merger were going on among some of the major parties in the election before the talks collapsed, while a party chieftain who prayed anonymity claimed that talks are still going on.

It was gathered that talks between SDP and ADP broke down over who bears the flag of the merger, just as Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi’s faction of the PDP also claimed he is still in PDP and has no plan to defect to any other party, even though he had meetings with Senator Iyiola Omisore, the SDP candidate.

Similarly, the chances of SDP and PDP working together is no longer feasible as the SDP candidate, Omisore has publicly claimed that he cannot return to the PDP and his chances of becoming the governor of the state is better in SDP.

The medium findings showed that the SDP could garner block votes from Ife Federal constituency but there is no certainty that it could gather 25 per cent votes in 20 out of 30 local governments across the state or the majority of total votes cast to become the ruling party in the state.

Also, the APC might gathered block votes from Osogbo, Olorunda Ifelodun/Boripe/Odo-Otin and Ijesa-South Federal constituencies among others, but the defection of some party leaders seems to be creating a stumbling block to its victory in some areas, except there are last minute changes.

In the same vein, the ADP may bring its block votes from Iwo Federal Constituencies but it is not certain that the party would have enough fire power to muscle the required votes in the 20 local government areas of the state to win the election out rightly.

The PDP as it is, could bring block votes from Ede but the party, though spending very high, seems not to have enough credibility to win the poll in a straight election, even with the level of defection in its favour.

However, when the medium contacted the APC spokesperson, Barrister Kunle Oyatomi, he disclosed that the APC is sure of winning the September 22 gubernatorial election in a straight poll and there is no need for any run off.

According to him, “You can take a bet, there wouldn’t be any run off, once the APC is far ahead all of the other contenders the poll would be a straight one for it to win.

“We are confident that the APC is a party to beat any day and any time. People of Osun know these and are determined to vote for continuity of development in the state. No political party has the kind of chances the APC has”, he claimed

Similarly, the spokesperson for Moshood Adeoti Campaign Organisation, Mr Kayode Agbaje told this medium that people of the state are determined to vote for the ADP and would not hesitate in doing so massively to ensure its victory on September 22.

He added that the party is not relenting in its effort at ensuring that it wins the election on September 22 and stay away from any possible run-off poll.

Also, a member of the PDP in the state, Mr Akintunde Sherrif said there is likely not going to be a run off election, as the people, by his calculation, are already tired of the APC government and would not hesitate to vote PDP.

“If the people of the state are the one that would vote and not importing voters from other state, we are sure the PDP would take the day. Various categories of APC members have defected to the PDP and that tells you there is no way we are heading for a run off.

“By every standard, the PDP is ready and set to win the election without getting to go for a second round of poll, every pointers showed that the APC may not even be second in this election”, he added

The ADC spokesperson, Mr Kayode Oladeji disclosed that with the level of acceptability enjoyed by the party’s candidate and the support of God, it is certain that the party would win the election in a straight poll without going to run-off.

“We might not be making noise as expected by many, but I am assuring you that we will surprise the populace and all the other political parties after the poll when we might have been pronounced the winner of the poll”, he said.