Osun 2018 Countdown: 197 Days To Go!

Analysis By Osun Defender’s Data Analyst, Ojenike Oluwadamilola.

Merging Of Previous Elections Results To Evaluate And Project

The graphics below show the aggregate of the merger of total votes cast by registered voters which decided the outcome of the presidential and governorship elections in 2015 and 2014 respectively. The charts show that approximately 2/3 of the voters participating supported the APC in both the presidential and state governorship elections in Osun State merged and weighted together to get an aggregate.

It also shows that in deciding the next presidential and governorship elections, the PDP with 1/3 of the votes will need massive effort to overturn this aggregation of past voting trends and results. Significantly, the APC has been involved in a structured drive of new voters in the ongoing voters’ registration exercise, with a rather dismal response from PDP and the ‘’third parties’’. Our own projection at this stage is that a Generic APC candidate is way ahead of the pack. As British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is often quoted as observing, “A week is a long time in politics’’. As we go along, we will look at other factors that might change the settled equation and affect the projections.