[PERSPECTIVE] From APC To ADC: Aregbesola’s Strategic Shift And Its Implications For Osun Politics
![[PERSPECTIVE] From APC To ADC: Aregbesola’s Strategic Shift And Its Implications For Osun Politics](https://osundefender.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ogbeni-Rauf-Aregbesola.webp)
- By MATT OLU OLOWOKERE
When Rauf Aregbesola, former governor of Osun State and one‑time Minister of the Interior, formally aligned himself with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and declared bold ambitions for the 2027 elections, many in Osun and beyond sat up to take notice. His move — from the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party that groomed much of his political rise, into an opposition party — marks more than a change of label. It carries serious consequences for Osun’s political terrain as we approach another watershed election cycle.
Aregbesola’s departure from APC is both symbolic and strategic. On one hand, it reflects dissatisfaction with the current leadership and a belief that APC’s appeal may be eroding, especially among voters who feel left behind. He has been vocally critical of APC’s perceived failures in governance. ADC, under his stewardship as National Secretary, now presents itself as an alternative — challenging entrenched loyalties not just in Osun, but in Lagos, Abuja, and other strongholds of APC. Critics in APC have dismissed his ambitions as “empty boasts,” accusing him of political suicide by attacking the platform that elevated him.
For Osun State in particular, the shift opens several possible outcomes. First, it could deepen political fragmentation. Aregbesola commands considerable respect among certain constituencies — especially those who supported his governance style in his two terms. If he successfully mobilises these loyalties under ADC, Osun could see a more viable three‑way contest, rather than the usual APC vs PDP duel. This may force all parties to sharpen their message, reevaluate campaign strategies, and more closely address grassroots concerns such as infrastructure decay, unemployment, and youth marginalization.
Second, there is the risk that the change splits the vote. ADC’s rise could siphon off a chunk of APC’s support base, particularly among those who feel disillusioned with APC’s performance. But unless ADC strengthens its ground structures, secures credible local leadership, and assembles a convincing platform of governance, this fragmentation may favour rival parties. In elections, fragmented opposition often advantages incumbents or parties with entrenched systems.
Third, Aregbesola’s shift may push the APC to re‑examine internal cohesion. Already, there are murmurs of discontent in Osun’s APC factions, especially among those aligned with Aregbesola’s earlier political footprint. How APC reconciles internal divisions, presents credible candidates for 2026 in Osun, and retains party loyalists will be vital.
Moreover, ADC’s new momentum under Aregbesola will test the electorate’s appetite for change. Will Osun voters respond to rhetoric of “new alternative” or will they demand concrete promises — road projects, education, healthcare, jobs — as barometers of sincerity? The track record of the ADC in by‑elections and smaller contests is limited. Convincing voters that ADC can deliver, not just oppose, will be a steep task.
Finally, there is the question of national positioning. Aregbesola’s vocal claims that ADC “will take over” Aso Rock and Lagos in 2027 suggest ambitions beyond Osun. Whether these ambitions are realistic or hyperbole, they will define how he and his party are seen — either as bold change‑makers or overreaching rebels.
For Osun, this means local campaigns may become intertwined with national narratives: identity politics, performance metrics, and regional interests will compete more sharply for voter attention.
What does this mean for the ordinary Osun citizen? It could mean more political attention, better infrastructure promises, renewed campaigning. But it could also mean uncertainty — shifting allegiances, campaign noise, possible divisions. For politics to serve the people, ADC must move beyond speeches, engage in grassroots delivery, and forge alliances that respect Osun’s history and expectations.
Aregbesola’s strategic shift from APC to ADC is a gamble — one rooted in the conviction that his political capital remains strong and that voters crave alternatives. For Osun, the outcome may reshape the state’s political balance.
As the 2026, then 2027 elections draw near, every move, every local candidate, every campaign will be watched closely. The “switch” is complete; now, the proof will be in what ADC delivers — not just in what Aregbesola promises.
The opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author. It does not represent the editorial position or opinion of OSUN DEFENDER.
